Tied After 26 Years

  Since April of 2014 Trendhaven has been managing client accounts in a strategy that has just completed its 26th year. The tactical approach using high-yield bond funds has been very successful in achieving its absolute return investment goal. Only one calendar year had a slightly negative return, and maximum drawdown net of fees has been held to only 5.9%. …

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Preeminent Convention

Preeminent Convention   I received a beautiful brochure from JP Morgan Asset Management that said that their Smart Retirement strategies have been widely recognized for their strong risk adjusted and consistent returns. These are target date funds that invest in other funds and vary the exposure both across and within different asset classes as the investor approaches a targeted retirement date. This active portfolio …

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The Price is Right

March 2017 “Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won’t come in.”  – Isaac Asimov Our desire for reasoned cause and effect is strong. It has produced a vast collection of theories, ratios, multiples, stochastics, cycles, rules of thumb and elegant calculations in support of an econometric view …

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Clear, simple and wrong

American journalist, satirist, and scholar H.L. Mencken is credited with the saying “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” There can be no doubt that the intricacies of and interrelationships between macro and micro economics, human behavior, trading algorithms and regulation make successful investing a very complex undertaking indeed. Understanding this perfectly well, …

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Learn to sail in all waters

One should learn to sail in all waters – Italian proverb There are more than a few investors these days that feel the frustration of what seems to be a somewhat “toppy” stock market, historically low bond yields and the prospects of an eventual rise in interest rates. Fixed income investors feel particularly stymied. If rates remain at or near …

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Betterer Investing

January 20, 2015 Robo-advisors may not be a “betterer” idea than traditional advisors if all you get is a diversified “buy and hold” approach. If you are a long-term buy and hold investor you should be prepared to weather an occasional 4-7 year period of diminished portfolio value. If that troubles you, perhaps you should rethink your strategy. At age …

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“Everyone Has a Plan Until They Get Punched in the Mouth” – Mike Tyson

September 19, 2014 In this corner, you, Mr. Individual Investor and your trainer Modern Portfolio Theory. In the other corner, Mr. Market. He doesn’t care about your plan or your theories. Every so often he will try to punch you hard right in your Efficient Frontier. You won’t see it coming. Are you going to wait until you get punched …

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“Everyone Has a Plan Until They Get Punched in the Mouth” – Mike Tyson

Average Investors Have No Rhythm

August 18, 2014 A company named Dalbar sells an annual study of investor behavior and relative investment returns to financial advisors. The chart below has been making the rounds. Advisors use it as a marketing tool to show potential clients just how poorly the average investor does versus aggregate market returns of various sectors and strategies. Unlike the other 20 …

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It is Still a Roller Coaster

August 11, 2014 For those with short term memories, it seems that the market for risk assets can only go up. Weak earnings season, prices go up. Ultra-slow “recovery”, prices go up. Geopolitical unrest? No problem, prices go up. Bad weather, prices go up. Since the 2008 financial crisis, Central Banks flooding markets with liquidity have punished savings and rewarded …

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